Turnout climbs past 30,000 as TN-7 enters midpoint of early voting

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Early voting in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District reached 30,656 ballots through Tuesday, according to state data released for the first six days of the December 2 special election. The totals reflect a strong midweek turnout increase across most of the district, but the county-level composition continues to lean toward Republican advantages as the race enters its midpoint.

Tuesday’s 5,336 ballots marked the highest weekday total since early voting began, surpassing Monday’s rebound from a light Saturday. The rise was consistent across nearly every county in the district, though the geographic balance remained similar to earlier days.

Davidson County reported 1,374 ballots on Tuesday for a cumulative total of 7,819. That accounts for roughly 25.5 percent of all early votes cast so far, virtually unchanged from Monday. Democrats typically rely on a much higher share of Nashville-area turnout to remain competitive in TN-7. With early voting now halfway completed, Davidson’s levels remain well below the range historically associated with a viable Democratic path in the district.

Montgomery County continued its steady performance with 1,566 votes on Tuesday, bringing its total to 8,121. That represents roughly 26.5 percent of all early votes and keeps Montgomery as the district’s single highest-turnout county. While strong, the county’s growth has not altered the overall districtwide balance given Davidson’s slower pace and continued strong participation in rural areas.

Williamson County produced 746 ballots on Tuesday and now sits at 3,801 for the period. The county has maintained one of the most consistent turnout profiles in the district and continues to closely match Republican-leaning participation seen in past off-cycle elections. Dickson and Robertson also reported stable totals, with no signs of reduced activity.

Cheatham County added 307 votes on Tuesday, bringing its cumulative total to 2,048. Cheatham remains unusually active for an off-year special election, though its partisan composition will not be known until Election Day.

Rural counties across the western half of the district also posted solid midweek turnout. Humphreys, Hickman, Houston, Stewart, Benton, Wayne and Perry showed healthy gains on Tuesday, reinforcing a trend of reliable participation in Republican-leaning areas. None of the rural counties have shown meaningful signs of softness or atypical behavior through the first six days.

Districtwide, the early-vote profile remains tilted toward counties where Republicans have historically run strongest. Urban and suburban counties make up roughly 59 percent of the early vote so far, while rural counties account for the remaining 41 percent. For Democrats to remain competitive, the urban share—particularly in Davidson—typically needs to be significantly higher by this stage of early voting.

Early voting continues through Nov. 26, with several high-volume days still expected before the Thanksgiving holiday.

TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker: Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District

Matt Van Epps (R) 88 % Current estimate as of Nov. 18

Aftyn Behn (D) 12 % Current estimate as of Nov. 18