Early vote trends signal uphill path for Democrats as TN-7 enters second week

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Early voting in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District reached 20,359 ballots through Saturday, according to state data compiled over the first four days of the December 2 special election. The totals reflect a generally steady turnout pattern across much of Middle Tennessee, with rural and suburban counties posting strong numbers and Davidson County continuing to trail the levels typically associated with competitive Democratic performance.

The district’s early voting opened November 12 and includes in-person ballots, absentee-by-mail returns, and votes cast at licensed facilities. While the daily totals dropped sharply on Saturday — a common pattern during weekend hours in Tennessee elections — participation remained consistent across most counties.

Davidson County recorded 5,200 votes through the fourth day, accounting for roughly 25.5 percent of all early ballots cast so far. Historically, Democrats rely on a much higher share of Nashville-area turnout to remain competitive in the 7th District, particularly following the 2022 redrawing that placed parts of the county inside the district’s boundaries. Through Saturday, Davidson’s portion of the district’s total remains well below the level that would support a narrow Democratic path.

Montgomery County contributed 5,146 ballots through day four, representing just over 25 percent of all early votes. The county has maintained steady turnout since opening day and continues to anchor the district’s overall numbers. Friday produced a noticeable increase across several counties, including Montgomery, before Saturday’s expected decline.

Williamson County reported 2,467 early votes through the fourth day, remaining one of the most consistently active counties in the district. Dickson and Robertson have also produced strong numbers, each tracking closely with typical off-cycle Republican turnout patterns.

Cheatham County continues to stand out, with 1,393 early votes through Saturday. The total remains unusually high for this stage of an off-year election, though its partisan composition will not be known until Election Day.

Elsewhere in the district, rural counties in the western portion — including Humphreys, Hickman, Houston, Stewart, Benton, and Wayne — have shown turnout levels that largely mirror their historical profiles. None have signaled irregular surges or declines, suggesting a stable early-vote environment heading into the second week.

Overall, the county-level pattern through the first four days reflects an electorate that currently leans toward established Republican strengths in the district, though turnout patterns could shift during the second week of early voting and the final stretch before Thanksgiving.

Below is the current TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker, which weighs early voting, turnout distribution, historical baselines and the media environment to estimate each candidate’s probability of winning as of November 16.

TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker

Matt Van Epps (R) 86 % Current estimate as of Nov. 16

Aftyn Behn (D) 14 % Current estimate as of Nov. 16