NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Early voting in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District rose to 47,148 ballots through Friday, according to new data from the Secretary of State. While the daily total of 5,266 votes reflects steady participation heading into the final weekend, the composition of the electorate continues to align with a traditionally Republican special-election environment rather than a competitive race.
Davidson County, a necessary anchor for Democratic turnout, recorded 1,176 votes on Friday, bringing its cumulative total to 11,304, or 24 percent of all early votes cast. That figure has declined in share for four consecutive days and remains well below the 40–45 percent range typically associated with Democratic viability in the district.
Montgomery County added 1,121 votes, reaching 11,691 ballots, or 24.8 percent of the districtwide total. Montgomery remains the highest-volume county in TN-7, but its share has also slipped as rural and suburban counties maintain steady participation.
Williamson County reported 1,107 votes on Friday, nearly matching Davidson’s daily output. Its cumulative total of 7,627 continues a pattern seen throughout the first nine days: Williamson’s turnout pace has remained strong, and its relative performance has contributed to an electorate that leans structurally toward the GOP.
Cheatham, Robertson, and Dickson counties also posted stable numbers, further reinforcing an early-vote pattern consistent with past special elections where Republican candidates have performed well. Rural counties now account for more than 20,000 ballots cast, remaining a structural advantage for Republicans in TN-7.
Media narrative vs. data reality
National and local reporting has increasingly framed the race between Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn as unexpectedly competitive following Democratic gains in other states. But early-vote data in TN-7 continues to tell a different story.
No measurable surge has appeared in the district’s Democratic-leaning precincts. Davidson’s share continues to fall. Montgomery is flattening rather than expanding. And strong Republican counties—Williamson in particular—are keeping pace day after day. With only a few early-voting days remaining, there is no quantifiable sign of an urban or youth-vote spike that would materially alter the fundamentals.
County-specific insights
Davidson County: Falling share for the fourth straight day; well below competitive range.
Montgomery County: Strong raw numbers but losing share relative to rural counties.
Williamson County: Continues matching or surpassing Davidson’s daily performance.
Cheatham and Robertson: Consistently strong for their size; behavior typical of GOP-leaning special-election turnout.
Rural bloc: More than 20,000 ballots cast; remains the structural advantage for Republicans in TN-7.
Taken together, the emerging early-vote picture reflects an electorate aligned with the district’s partisan baseline rather than a tightening contest.
TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker: Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District
Updated November 21, 2025
This tracker estimates each candidate’s probability of winning the December 2 special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. Percentages reflect the model’s evaluation of early-vote composition, district partisanship, campaign resources, turnout patterns, and other structural indicators.
 Matt Van Epps (R) 90 % |  Aftyn Behn (D) 10 % |
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