Early voting data shows familiar patterns as TN-7 special election enters final week

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Early voting in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District has climbed to 54,822 ballots through Nov. 22, according to daily submissions from county election officials. The totals show a highly engaged electorate and strong participation across the district’s 14 counties, but the distribution of votes continues to follow the same geographic and partisan contours seen in last year’s general election.

While national political coverage has increasingly framed the Dec. 2 special election as a potentially close contest, the early-voting numbers to date — paired with the district’s most recent voting patterns — do not reflect the type of structural shifts normally associated with a single-digit race or a competitive seat.

Instead, turnout remains balanced across the district’s Republican-leaning counties, while Democratic-heavy Davidson County is producing fewer votes proportionally than would typically signal a tightening contest.

Davidson: strong turnout, but below competitive thresholds

Davidson County has generated 13,650 early votes so far, the largest Democratic source in the district by a wide margin. The county provided nearly 58 percent of Megan Barry’s districtwide vote in 2024 and remains the foundation of Democratic performance in TN-7.

So far in 2025, Davidson accounts for 24.9 percent of all early votes. That share is well below the levels associated with competitive Democratic performances in similar federal races, where the party often requires 40 to 45 percent of its total early vote from Davidson to offset Republican strength elsewhere in the district.

Turnout within the county has been steady, and Nov. 22 produced one of its larger daily totals, but Davidson’s current proportion of the districtwide vote remains one of the clearest indicators that the overall map has not shifted dramatically.

Montgomery: high turnout in a Republican-leaning county

Montgomery County, which leaned Republican by about 20 points in the 2024 Green–Barry race, has produced 13,396 early votes — the highest total of any county in the district.

Montgomery contains several Democratic-leaning precincts in Clarksville, particularly in younger and military-adjacent neighborhoods, and Behn’s campaign has concentrated organizing efforts there. Even so, if the county performs roughly in line with its 2024 behavior, a substantial share of its large early-vote pool will advantage Republicans.

Concerns voiced earlier in the cycle about potential GOP drop-off in special-election turnout are not reflected in these numbers. Montgomery’s participation has remained strong throughout the early-voting period and continues to track with the district’s broader Republican-leaning composition.

Williamson and the rural counties show stable participation

Williamson County has submitted 8,941 early votes — a high number for a special election and consistent with its reputation as one of Tennessee’s most engaged voter bases. The county leaned decisively Republican in 2024 and remains one of the GOP’s strongest sources of support in TN-7.

The district’s rural counties — including Robertson, Dickson, Stewart, Humphreys, Hickman, Wayne, and others — have also shown steady turnout, collectively adding thousands of ballots to the early vote. Their current share of the district’s total is in line with their typical proportion in general elections, reinforcing the extent to which the early electorate resembles the district’s usual partisan shape.

What the early vote looks like when mapped onto 2024 patterns

One way to understand the current electorate is to apply each county’s 2024 Green–Barry vote share to its 2025 early-vote total. This approach, while not predictive, provides a useful benchmark for how the early vote aligns with recent district behavior.

Using that method, the 2025 early vote through Nov. 22 would break down approximately as follows:

• Van Epps (R): ~59.2 percent
• Behn (D): ~40.8 percent

Those percentages closely mirror the districtwide outcome in 2024, when Green won 59.5 percent to Barry’s 38 percent. The similarity underscores how much the early-voting electorate continues to reflect the established partisan geography of Tennessee’s 7th District.

Editor’s Note:
Modeled early-vote figures in this story are proportional allocations based on each county’s 2024 Mark Green–Megan Barry vote shares and are intended to illustrate the structure of the early vote, not forecast the outcome of the Dec. 2 special election.

Energy is high — but the structure is familiar

Both parties have mobilized large volunteer networks, launched high-frequency ad campaigns, and benefited from increased media attention. Democrats have intensified outreach in Davidson and Montgomery. Republicans have run an aggressive ballot-chase operation across rural counties and the Williamson suburbs.

Enthusiasm is evident; signs of a changed electoral map are not.

To date, the early-voting totals show no meaningful drop-off in Republican-leaning counties, no outlier surge in Democratic areas, and no shift in the composition of the electorate that would indicate a break from the 2024 pattern. The race may ultimately finish closer than last year’s Green–Barry result, but the numbers currently available do not reflect the kind of early movement associated with a nail-biter or a near-flip seat.

With one week remaining before Election Day, the fundamental question is whether late early-voting days or Election Day turnout in Davidson and parts of Montgomery can change the overall balance. For now, the data points to a race drawing strong interest but unfolding within the familiar geography that has defined TN-7 since redistricting.