 Marsha Blackburn
56%
|
 John Rose
29%
|
|
Remaining Field Combined: 15%
|
|
Week of Oct. 6, 2025
Race Analysis
Marsha Blackburn solidified her frontrunner status this week after dominating the Bartlett Festival Straw Poll (Oct. 3–4), capturing 80% of the vote compared to John Rose’s 14% and Monty Fritts’ 6%. While straw polls are not scientific, the results highlight the depth of grassroots enthusiasm behind Blackburn’s early campaign. Her advantage in name recognition, statewide network of endorsements, and steady media visibility continues to reinforce her position as the clear favorite in the developing GOP field.
John Rose remains financially strong and strategically active, maintaining one of the largest campaign accounts in the state and a consistent presence at county-level Republican events. However, with few new endorsements or headline-generating appearances in recent weeks, his share of the projected GOP vote shows only modest movement as early campaign dynamics take shape.
Monty Fritts continues to position himself as the race’s anti-establishment alternative, emphasizing government restraint and local control. While his campaign remains limited in scope, his messaging may resonate with grassroots conservatives seeking an outsider voice as the field expands.
About this tracker:
The TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker estimates the relative likelihood of success for major candidates in Tennessee’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary. It incorporates publicly available polling, campaign finance data, endorsements, and qualitative assessments of campaign momentum.
Methodology: Read full methodology here.
Discover more from TNPOLITICO
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
