 Marsha Blackburn 61% |
 John Rose 39% |
Week of Oct. 27, 2025
Marsha Blackburn: 61%
John Rose: 39%
Summary: County-level straw polls underscore Tennessee’s deepening GOP divide between suburban establishment voters and rural populist activists. Blackburn swept high-turnout suburban events in Davidson and Shelby Counties, while Rose racked up wins in smaller Reagan Dinners across Lawrence, Lewis, Pickett, and Overton. Weighted by participation, Blackburn maintains a roughly two-to-one edge, preserving her overall lead in the TNPOLITICO model.
No fresh financial disclosures or high-profile endorsements surfaced this week, keeping fundraising and institutional support factors steady. The updated model moves slightly in Blackburn’s favor — to 61% vs 39% — reflecting her dominance in larger-scale GOP gatherings even as Rose’s rural organizing remains formidable.
Methodology Disclosure:
These probabilities are based on TNPOLITICO’s weighted model of campaign strength, which incorporates fundraising, endorsements, base vote history, momentum, and sentiment. All figures are normalized so the total equals 100% within each race.
Data are drawn from publicly available sources, including state and federal filings, verified media reports, and direct campaign communications.
For complete details, visit our full methodology page.
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