TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker: Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District —Week of Oct. 15, 2025

Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District – Probability Tracker

Week of October 15, 2025 (Update)

Matt Van Epps (R) 81 % ▼ –1 pt from Oct 13

Aftyn Behn (D) 19 % ▲ +1 pt from Oct 13

This Week’s Analysis

• Behn (+1 pt) – Consistent digital engagement and upcoming canvasses (Oct 18–19) lifted short-term momentum; field logistics remain a constraint outside urban/suburban cores.
• Van Epps (–1 pt) – Strong endorsements and GOP unity events continue, but post-primary digital presence was lighter than Behn’s.
• Infighting factor: Earlier GOP factional tensions have largely subsided; no meaningful probability penalty this week.
• Overall outlook: Van Epps remains a clear favorite on structural fundamentals; Behn narrows slightly on near-term momentum.

Next Update: Week of October 22 (with FEC filings, early-vote indicators, and social momentum).