TNPOLITICO’s Probability Tracker provides a data-driven snapshot of the December 2 special general election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, where Republican Matt Van Epps (R) faces Democrat Aftyn Behn (D) in the race to succeed retired Congressman Mark Green. The model applies the same methodology used in our statewide tracker, combining historical voting patterns, fundraising trends, endorsements, district partisanship, and voter-registration shifts to estimate each candidate’s chance of victory. With no public polling available, the initial baseline reflects the district’s strong Republican lean—while accounting for Behn’s energetic grassroots operation and focus on youth turnout.
Week of Oct. 8, 2025
Republican Matt Van Epps (R) enters the general election as the clear favorite following his decisive primary victory on October 7, capturing more than twice the votes of his nearest competitor, Jody Barrett. Van Epps has unified much of the Republican base after securing endorsements from President Donald Trump, Governor Bill Lee, and outgoing Congressman Mark Green, as well as support from several state and local GOP organizations. His campaign has emphasized character, military service, and continuity with Green’s policy agenda, appealing to the district’s traditional conservative electorate.
Democrat Aftyn Behn (D), a state representative from Nashville, officially clinched her party’s nomination after narrowly defeating Darden Hunter Copeland by roughly 900 votes. Behn’s campaign continues to focus on grassroots organizing and youth mobilization, framing her effort as a generational challenge to Tennessee’s Republican establishment. In recent weeks, she has sharpened her message around affordability, healthcare, and generational change, calling for greater access to reproductive healthcare and emphasizing the need for a more representative voice from Middle Tennessee in Congress.
The initial model weighting reflects Tennessee’s 7th District’s deep partisan lean (R +10) and recent electoral history—Mark Green won the seat 59.5% to 38.0% in 2024. However, both primaries saw unusually high turnout for a special election, suggesting heightened engagement across party lines. For now, Van Epps holds a commanding advantage, but Behn’s early organizing success will serve as an important indicator of Democratic enthusiasm heading into November’s early-voting period.
Tracker Notes & Sources
This tracker will be updated weekly through the December 2, 2025 special general election. Percentages reflect the TNPOLITICO model’s estimate of each candidate’s probability of victory, based on district partisanship, turnout trends, fundraising, endorsements, and historical voting patterns. Figures are not polling data and should be interpreted as a snapshot of the race’s current trajectory.
SOURCES: Tennessee Secretary of State election results; Federal Election Commission filings; campaign press releases; TNPOLITICO reporting and research.
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