TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker: Behn Narrows Slightly as Van Epps Holds 79% Edge in Tennessee’s 7th District Race

TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker: Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District

Week of November 9, 2025 (Update)

This tracker estimates each candidate’s probability of winning the December 2 special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. The model blends district partisanship, fundraising and outside spending, endorsements and unity, campaign field operations, momentum signals from media and social engagement, and vetted polling inputs. Percentages reflect our best estimate today and are updated as new information becomes available.

Matt Van Epps (R) 79 % ▼ –2 pts from Oct 15

Aftyn Behn (D) 21 % ▲ +2 pts from Oct 15

This Week’s Analysis

The TNPOLITICO model for November 9 estimates that Matt Van Epps holds a 79 percent chance of victory in the December 2 special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. Aftyn Behn’s probability has risen to 21 percent, reflecting small gains in campaign organization and name recognition since mid-October.

This modest change follows the incorporation of new inputs, including internal Democratic polling that suggests a single-digit Republican lead that is narrower than the district’s typical partisan advantage. Behn’s team has strengthened coordination with the addition of State Sen. Charlane Oliver as political director, which has improved volunteer management and outreach in urban and suburban precincts. Behn continues to center her message on affordability and economic populism in an effort to mobilize younger and working-class voters ahead of early voting beginning November 12.

At the same time, Behn’s campaign faced execution challenges this week. A joint town hall with Rep. Jasmine Crockett drew a small in-person audience and encountered technical issues that drew online criticism. While Behn’s social media engagement remains strong, that incident underscored the difficulty of converting digital enthusiasm into broader, on-the-ground momentum.

On the Republican side, Van Epps remains in a commanding position. He continues to benefit from party unity and visible support from statewide Republicans, including Sen. Bill Hagerty and Rep. Mark Green. His message emphasizes national security, conservative priorities, and alignment with President Trump, which remain well matched to the district’s Republican lean. Van Epps’ strategy has emphasized in-person and county-level events over digital visibility, relying on the local GOP network and a continued resource advantage.

The model continues to account for that resource edge and the district’s structure, which has favored Republicans by double digits in recent cycles. Overall, the November 9 update reflects a race that has tightened modestly but remains strongly tilted toward Van Epps. Behn’s improved organization and message discipline have helped close the gap slightly, but her path would still require an exceptional turnout surge among younger and urban voters. Early voting data and any late ad spending in mid-November will determine whether this 79–21 split tightens further as Election Day approaches.

Next scheduled update: Week of November 16 (including early-vote analysis, late ad activity, and any new public or internal polling).